According to industry experts, the next Bitcoin bull run is expected to occur in 2024 or early 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s fourth halving.
As the global cryptocurrency market value fell below $2 trillion last week, leading crypto executives began to discuss the possibility of a persistent bear market, or “crypto winter.”
Contrary to many in the crypto market’s projections, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to rise beyond $68,000 in 2021 and continued to fall below $40,000 in early 2022, resulting in severe losses for large crypto investors such as MicroStrategy.
According to Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of the Ethereum blockchain, a future crypto winter might be beneficial to the sector by providing a boost in upgrading technology. Lower bitcoin pricing, Buterin argued in a Bloomberg interview on Saturday, might help foster long-term sustainable initiatives while reducing short-term speculative attention:
“The winters are the time when a lot of those applications fall away and you can see which projects are actually long-term sustainable, like both in their models and in their teams and their people.”
According to the 28-year-old cryptocurrency billionaire, those who are “deep into crypto, and especially building things,” favour a down market. “They like the bear market because when there are these lengthy periods of prices increasing by great amounts as it does — it certainly makes a lot of people happy — but it also attracts a lot of highly short-term speculative attention,” Buterin explained.
Cryptocurrency businesses will have plenty of time to improve technology before the next bull market, which some crypto experts believe will not come until late 2024.
According to Du Jun, co-founder of the Huobi crypto exchange, the next Bitcoin bull run will not occur until 2024, and will most likely occur after Bitcoin’s fourth halving, which is due for July 2024.
All three prior BTC halvings, including the most recent one in 2020, resulted in subsequent price increases owing to a planned slowdown in new BTC supply. The forthcoming Bitcoin halving, which occurs only once every four years, will cut the Bitcoin block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Du emphasised that the crypto market has been moving in cycles connected to halvings, citing a large crypto winter in 2018, which followed the second Bitcoin halving and subsequent boom in 2017.
“If this circle continues, we are now at the early stage of a bear market. Following this cycle, it won’t be until the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 that we can welcome the next bull market on Bitcoin.”
Du went on to say that it’s tough to anticipate the crypto market cycles precisely because there are so many other elements to consider, such as geopolitical crises like war, COVID-19, and others.
Previously, Jirayut Srupsrisopa, CEO of large Thailand-based crypto exchange Bitkub Capital Group Holdings, projected that the BTC halving will usher in a “golden age” for Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets in 2024.
Kraken CEO Jesse Powell also mentioned a possible crypto winter in late 2021, noting that anything under $40,000 was a “buying opportunity.”
According to CoinGecko statistics, Bitcoin is now trading for $37,653, down more than 33% over the last 365 days.